OVERVIEW

A live war game, in two rounds.

The SMU Cox War Game gives MBA teams a real company and a competitive briefing book, then asks them to do what strategy teams do: decide where to play, how to win, and what to do when the market moves against you. Round 1 was our proactive strategy. Round 2 was reactive: five live scenarios from the judges, with little prep time.

THE TEAM

SMU Cox School of Business

Dallas, Texas

Vanessa Sambrano

Aditya Mehta

Trenton Bright

IPADE Business School

Monterrey, Mexico

Itziar Olóriz

Karla Muñoz

Juan Pablo

Ochoa Rouhana

OUR ROUND 1 DECK

British Airways:

Strategic Plan 2026–2028

Build premium leadership, strengthen financial performance, and shape the future of long-haul aviation.

1st of 6

SMU Cox War Game · Team of six

THE CHALLENGE

British Airways is squeezed from every direction.

Gulf carriers were outspending BA on product and pulling premium connecting traffic. Low-cost carriers were eating short-haul margins. Air India and Lufthansa were fighting for the same corporate accounts. Then the brief added the Equinox Alliance: 15 airlines using discounted, geopolitically risky fuel to undercut Western carriers on price. We contended BA should make none of the obvious moves.

HOW THE FIVE COMPETITORS WILL RESPOND

HOW THEY’LL RESPOND

Defend its premium corporate base by leaning into reliability, network breadth, and premium differentiation rather than price.

WHAT IT MEANS FOR BRITISH AIRWAYS

Most likely to make the same strategic pivot as BA, which means BA has to prove Heathrow reliability and service consistency are better.

HOW THEY’LL RESPOND

Protect corporate contracts and transatlantic premium demand through U.S. relationships, loyalty, and premium product improvements.

WHAT IT MEANS FOR BRITISH AIRWAYS

American can match BA on business traveler relevance from the U.S. side, even if BA has the Heathrow advantage.

HOW THEY’LL RESPOND

Use its premium brand and reputation to stay above the pricing battle, while using its product and scale to defend long-haul premium traffic.

WHAT IT MEANS FOR BRITISH AIRWAYS

Less of a direct threat to BA’s reliability-led North Atlantic strategy, but it raises what customers expect from a premium experience.

HOW THEY’LL RESPOND

Keep modernizing and growing its long-haul network. Its location could make it a candidate to join Equinox.

WHAT IT MEANS FOR BRITISH AIRWAYS

Could become more competitive if it improves both product and execution. A medium-term watch item more than a direct threat.

HOW THEY’LL RESPOND

Compete on premium service and strong connectivity, capturing value through the onboard experience instead of nonstop simplicity.

WHAT IT MEANS FOR BRITISH AIRWAYS

A real challenge because it combines high-end premium perception with broad network reach. It could also look to deepen partnerships.

ROUND 1 · OUR STRATEGY

Three strategic pillars.

01

PILLAR 01

Compete on trust and compliance instead of price.

Equinox’s cost edge came from fuel tied to sanctioned states. That is also a regulatory and reputational liability. We positioned BA as the fully compliant, UK and NATO-aligned premium carrier, and made that a sales tool for corporate travel managers.

EQUINOX ALLIANCE

20 to 30% cheaper fuel

Tied to sanctioned states: a regulatory and reputational liability.

BRITISH AIRWAYS

Fully compliant

UK and NATO aligned. Turned into a sales tool for corporate travel managers.

VS

THE TRADEOFF

We ceded price competition entirely, betting corporate buyers value reliability over price and that regulation would slow Equinox first.

02

PILLAR 02

Deepen corporate lock-in before Equinox builds its own.

Equinox launched with no loyalty program and no personalization. We recommended moves that raise the cost of switching away from BA.

14M

Executive Club members to lock in. Equinox had zero loyalty program.

Faster Avios upgrades

Long-term corporate contracts

AI-driven personalization

Guaranteed fast-track security

THE TRADEOFF

Investing in loyalty while cutting costs elsewhere was a real tension. We protected the revenue base first.

03

PILLAR 03

Double down on Heathrow and the Atlantic corridor.

Instead of competing everywhere, BA should win decisively where it is structurally advantaged: its Heathrow hub and the US-UK business corridor.

43%

Heathrow slot share, a hub advantage no rival can copy.

LHR

London Heathrow

JFK

New York

US-UK: one of the busiest business corridors

Asia-Europe: conceded

THE TRADEOFF

We accepted exposure on Asia-Europe routes where Gulf hubs are stronger. It was a resource call as much as a competitive one.

THE THREE-YEAR PLAN

How the pillars roll out.

2026

FIRST 6 MONTHS

Establish and intercept

Turn Middle East turbulence into inbound traffic through Heathrow.

2027

YEAR 2

Deepen and differentiate

Turn captured traffic into lasting corporate relationships.

2028

YEAR 3

Compound and defend

Use loyalty data as a competitive advantage rivals can’t copy.

HOW WE’D MEASURE IT BY 2028

01

Premium cabin

load factor

02

Corporate account

retention

03

On-time performance

above 86%

04

Avios active

corporate accounts

ROUND 2 · LIVE SCENARIOS

Five live scenarios with no prep time.

Our Round 1 strategy held up because we had mapped our assumptions carefully. Each response came straight from the three pillars.

EVERY LIVE RESPONSE TRACED BACK TO A PILLAR

Trust +

compliance

Corporate

lock-in

Heathrow +

Atlantic

01

Regulatory pressure on Equinox

02

Market share loss to Equinox

03

Lufthansa defects to Equinox

04

Equinox dominates by 2028

05

Fuel supply threatened

OUR CALL WHEN EQUINOX LAUNCHED: DON’T JOIN, OUTPLAY IT

Premium differentiation

Faster boarding through security partnerships

Private, video-ready meeting pods in lounges

Service that knows each customer’s name and preferences

A guaranteed fast-track security lane for premium passengers

Reinforce alliances

Expand joint ventures, especially on US routes

Tighter connectivity and coordination with partners

Corporate travel contracts with firms like Goldman Sachs and McKinsey

Secure fuel

Lock in long-term prices with swaps and options

Invest in sustainable aviation fuel

Diversify supply across Europe, the US and the Middle East

Fly newer, more efficient aircraft

FROM OUR ROUND 2 DECK

HOW WE BUILT IT

Predicting competitors’ next moves.

We ran a Four Corners analysis on Lufthansa, American, Emirates, Air India, and Qatar: each one’s goals, current strategy, management assumptions, and real capabilities. Lufthansa was the clearest case. It was betting on a premium cabin rollout and acquisition synergies, but the rollout was slow and the integration costly. That gap between assumption and capability was BA’s opening on corporate accounts.

I use the same thinking in product work: compare what users assume a product does with what it delivers. The opportunity sits in that gap.

RETROSPECTIVE

What I’d do differently.

THE PM TAKEAWAY

Strategy means choosing where to put limited resources.

You can’t invest in everything or serve every user equally well. In a war game or a roadmap, I look for where we’re structurally advantaged, commit there, and treat exposure elsewhere as a choice we made on purpose.